Tversky

Rational? – Test 8: „Tödliche Krankheit“

Test 8: Stellen Sie sich vor, die Bundesrepublik bereitet sich auf den Ausbruch einer ungewöhnlichen Krankheit vor, die voraussichtlich 600 Menschen töten wird. Es wurden zwei alternative Programme zur Bekämpfung der Krankheit vorgeschlagen. Nehmen wir an, dass die wissenschaftlichen Schätzungen in Bezug auf die Wirkungen der Programme wie folgt lauten: Wenn Programm A angenommen wird, werden 200 Menschen gerettet. Wird Programm B angenommen, besteht eine Ein-Drittel-Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass 600 Menschen gerettet werden und eine Zwei-Drittel-Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass keine Menschen gerettet werden. (Aufgabenstellung aus: Droste, 2022, S. 313-315; Stanovich & Toplak, 2016, S. 141–146; Tversky & Kahneman, 1981) Weiter zu…

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